Black Friday. What Happened and Why You Should Care

It’s not just a shopping day—it’s an economic litmus test.

Over 130 million Americans are estimated to have participated in the Black Friday frenzy, chasing deals and sparking trends that reveal far more than just what’s in vogue in retail.

Here’s a breakdown.

Key Insights from Black Friday 2024:

🤳 Ecommerce Dominates: Mastercard data shows online sales surged 15%, vastly outpacing the growth of physical retail, which stagnated at <1%.

⁉️ Advertising at an All-Time High: Advertising spend exploded, with some channels expecting 40%+ compared to 2023.

🔊Voice Commerce on the Rise: Amazon's Alexa is no longer just a digital assistant—it’s a sales driver, reminding users about deals and enabling quick purchases.

👯 FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) Drives Customer Acquisition: Black Friday’s time-sensitive deals tap into FOMO, tripling new customer sign-ups compared to regular periods.

Why It Matters

Black Friday provides a unique snapshot of the health of the consumer economy, with implications that go far beyond shopping bags.

💰 Macro Analysis: It serves as a real-time indicator of consumer sentiment and financial health.

🔀 Channel Shifts: The relentless growth of ecommerce highlights changing consumer priorities—value, convenience, and transparency.

💪 Competitive Advantage: How companies manage pricing, promotions, & branding speaks volumes about their market position and future resilience.

🤗 Loyalty Opportunities: Smart businesses capitalize on the influx of new customers to build long-term relationships.

📈 Investment Signals: While retail may be a small part of the market, there’s alpha to be gained for those who outperform their peers.

What’s Next?

The story of ecommerce is still unfolding:

🪴 Steady Growth: Ecommerce now accounts for around 23% of total retail sales and continues to grow at 8% annually.

🕵 Dominance of Giants: Amazon, Shopify, and Walmart hold an estimated 60% market share.

🧑‍💻 AI-Driven Deflation: Smarter tools are driving greater price transparency and efficiency for consumers.

🥐 Variable Penetration: The Consumer Packaged Goods/Grocery sector has 12% ecommerce penetration, despite representing 42% of total retail sales, leaving significant room for growth.

🌎 Global Expansion: While the U.S. leads the way, international markets present substantial untapped potential.

This is not investment advice.